Exit Polls Explanation

Everyone is wondering what went wrong yesterday in New Hampshire.  How could the polling be so far off from the voting?  Was it WaterworksGate?  A guy who was actually there with boots on the ground may have the answer.

They are sick and tired from being dismissed. They are sick and tired that all the male candidates are being called by their last name but the woman is being called by her first name.

From his account, it was pretty obvious what was happening on the streets.

A Bold Prediction

If Hillary doesn’t win in New Hampshire, you’ll see her crying on TV at least 4 times between January 9th and February 5th. What do I base that statement on? Mostly this:

Another woman in the group, Alison Hamilton of Portsmouth, New Hampshire said she, like most of the people in the group, had been considering Obama.

But after seeing Clinton become emotional, she said she was going to vote for Clinton.

“That was the clincher,” Hamilton said.

I’m sure they’ll poll it first to see if crying will actually work for her, and they’ll probably (correctly) determine that it will turn some people off. But then again, they aren’t exactly appealing to people’s rational side to begin with, so why not jump off the cliff and appeal to their emotions completely? By then it will be her only chance.

The real challenge for her will be turning on the waterworks on demand. Her best bet would be recalling someone something Bill did.

***UPDATE***

Here’s the video

[youtube MVlwH7-05Fk]

More From New Hampshire

Rogel has posted another update from New Hampshire on the Ron Paul Town Hall Meeting and a couple of quips:

I can develop the point of tell me “Tell me who is campaigning for you and I tell you who you are” but I will leave it with reminding that Chuck Norris is actively campaigning for the huckster.

Reports From New Hampshire

Rogel packed up the whole family and carted them from New York to New Hampshire to participate in the primaries.  He’s reporting back some of his experiences, and a couple of funny anecdotes:

In the background my wife listen to a conversation between a Ron Paul supporter and a McCain supporter – The Ron Paul supporter tried to explain that monetary policy is the main issue and that, obviously, Ron Paul is the ideal candidate to deal with the economic crisis. Frustrated with the other supporter ignorance he urged him “You have to read Hayek and Mises”. He lost him at “you have to read” observed my wife.

I really enjoy reading these “man on the street” type reports from regular folks like you and me.  He isn’t beholden to any editor or corporation to dictate what he writes, giving him the chance to tell it the way he sees it.  Keep it up, and keep posting updates!

Ron Paul and Wolf Blitzer on 12/2

Here are the two parts of Ron Paul’s interview with Wolf Blitzer last night. He gets to cover a lot of ground in this interview–Iraq, monetary policy, globalism, taxes, and fund raising. I also received Dr. Paul’s newsletter today that addresses a great point regarding last week’s debates

mainstream politicians NEVER attack an opponent they think is far behind. The McCain campaign, we’ve heard, is worried sick about New Hampshire, and they thought a slam at me would help. Ha! Of course, it only strengthened our forces.

Enjoy the video, and don’t forget about the Tea Party on December 16!

[youtube E_Hg11RD8k0]

[youtube LnT8N81FSa8]

Post New Hampshire Debate Thoughts

At this point, I’m happy for Ron Paul to stay in the race for no other reason than how much it annoys Sean Hannity that he always win the post debate polls. The only way Hannity could possibly be more of a nuisance would be if he changed his last name to Clinton. I’ll have a whole separate post coming up after Hannity gets his ass handed to him by has what he predicts will be a battle with Dr. Paul

I didn’t think Ron Paul did particularly well tonight. Although I agree with just about everything he has to say, he didn’t hammer home the freedom message, which is by far his strength. Of course, it doesn’t help that the 1st tier candidates get 3-4 questions to each of his. I did absolutely love his response that the President gets his marching orders from the Constitution–classic.

Other highlights:

  • Romney proves he’s still perfectly capable of not answering a single question.
  • Guiliani was mayor of New York–did you know that?
  • Tancredo couldn’t talk a vagrant into drinking a beer with him.
  • Duncan Hunter leaned on the podium like George W. and tried to smirk like Reagan. Neither worked for him.

If I were any of these candidates, I’d be pretty annoyed that Fred Thompson’s name was even brought up, much less the lead question.

Electoral College Class of ’96

Justin Gardner at Donklephant asks if we should Get Rid of the Electoral College.

On Aug. 25, Democratic California senator Dianne Feinstein called for the abolition of the Electoral College, saying, “The current system enables a handful of states to become battleground states, and disenfranchises tens of millions of American voters in the most important election in the nation.

Yeah, but…
Wouldn’t eliminating the electoral college basically cause candidates to pander to campaign in areas that are densely populated and forget about people in less populated areas?

I think the real problem is that we’ve become a culture that, dangerously and wrongly, looks to The President as the person who is responsible for all of the woes and triumphs of our daily lives. The Presidency was meant to be of the States, not of the people, hence the electoral college. The President’s job was to be the executive officer of the group of States, while the States themselves were to be responsible for governing the people. That way people in California would be free to institue whatever wacky policies and programs they choose to implement locally while not affecting the people of New Hampshire, who would be free to choose a more conservative set of policies to govern their state.

The powers of the President and federal government are pretty clearly laid out in the Constitution and should be correctly limited. If they were, this wouldn’t be an issue.

Are the Dems Cracking Up?

I can’t help but cheer for controversy like this:

With other states rushing to set early nominating contests, Florida offers the first test of the DNC’s resolve to restore order to the schedule it set last year. Michigan and New Hampshire also are considering moving up their voting, in violation of the party rules.

But the DNC has threatened to penalize candidates who campaign in states that violate the rules.

Relax, I’d be just as happy to see it happen to the Republicans. Besides, it’s only natural–these things happen when any organization/company/government gets too big.

It never ceases to amaze me that over 200 years ago a few men were smart enough to realize that the only way to make one size fit all is to limit the size. Let’s not forget that simple truth.

Signing the Constitution

Thoughts on the New Hampshire Debate

Well, not very many fireworks at all.  John McCain, my friends, looked so rehearsed that he was afraid he was going to make a mistake.  I was glad to see Ron Paul stay on message and tie everything back to the Constitution and our flawed foreign policy.  Almost every statement he made received at least a smattering of applause from the audience, but then again, they are in New Hampshire.

I was really irritated at how Wolf Blitzer let the candidates go on and on with their off-topic answers.  I think he lost control of the moderation early on.  He started off trying to hold them to the questions, but Romney pretty much let him know that wasn’t going to happen.

Tommy Thompson looked prepared on the health care question.  He’s done his homework there.

Wasn’t it interesting how everyone else is now tying foreign policy to our dependence on energy?  Ron Paul brought this up in the first debate.  It’s just another example of his presence pushing the debate into the right direction.

Tom Tancredo may be the only man alive who is a worse public speaker than G.W. Bush.